2018 House · MI-8
The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 447 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49.05% · Republican 42.42%
D+6.6
The certified result
Democrat 50.61% · Republican 46.78%
D+3.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49.05 − 42.42 = 6.63
- Actual margin = 50.610 − 46.776 = 3.834
- Signed miss = 6.63 − (3.834) = 2.796
- Absolute miss = |2.796| = 2.796
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56692, race ID 372 (538 database).