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2018 House · NY-22

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 506 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44.95% · Republican 45.88%

R+0.9

The certified result

Democrat 46.18% · Republican 43.84%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.95 − 45.88 = -0.93
  2. Actual margin = 46.177 − 43.837 = 2.340
  3. Signed miss = -0.93 − (2.340) = -3.269
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.269| = 3.269

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56693, race ID 459 (538 database).