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2018 House · IL-14

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 428 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48.64% · Republican 43.41%

D+5.2

The certified result

Democrat 52.50% · Republican 47.50%

D+5.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.64 − 43.41 = 5.23
  2. Actual margin = 52.502 − 47.498 = 5.004
  3. Signed miss = 5.23 − (5.004) = 0.226
  4. Absolute miss = |0.226| = 0.226

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56707, race ID 316 (538 database).