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2018 Governor · PA

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 1,833 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 42%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.77% · Republican 40.70%

D+17.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 42 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.768 − 40.695 = 17.073
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (17.073) = -6.073
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.073| = 6.073

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56758, race ID 158 (538 database).