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2018 Governor · WY

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 858 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 27% · Republican 61%

R+34.0

The certified result

Democrat 27.54% · Republican 67.12%

R+39.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 27 − 61 = -34.00
  2. Actual margin = 27.537 − 67.119 = -39.582
  3. Signed miss = -34.00 − (-39.582) = 5.583
  4. Absolute miss = |5.583| = 5.583

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56761, race ID 166 (538 database).