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2018 Senate · NJ

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 1,006 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 41%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.01% · Republican 42.83%

D+11.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 41 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.007 − 42.828 = 11.179
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (11.179) = -1.179
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.179| = 1.179

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56763, race ID 113 (538 database).