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2018 House · GA-6

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 395 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 45%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.51% · Republican 49.48%

D+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 45 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.512 − 49.482 = 1.030
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (1.030) = 4.970
  4. Absolute miss = |4.970| = 4.970

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56788, race ID 286 (538 database).