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2018 House · NC-13

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 567 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 43%

even

The certified result

Democrat 45.55% · Republican 51.54%

R+6.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 43 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.545 − 51.541 = -5.996
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-5.996) = 5.996
  4. Absolute miss = |5.996| = 5.996

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.0 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56790, race ID 412 (538 database).