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2018 Governor · ID

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 838 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 55%

R+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.19% · Republican 59.77%

R+21.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 55 = -16.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.187 − 59.766 = -21.579
  3. Signed miss = -16.00 − (-21.579) = 5.579
  4. Absolute miss = |5.579| = 5.579

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56795, race ID 141 (538 database).