Skip to content

2018 Senate · MN

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 953 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 42%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.97% · Republican 42.35%

D+10.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 42 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.971 − 42.351 = 10.620
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (10.620) = -1.619
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.619| = 1.619

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56797, race ID 129 (538 database).