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2018 Governor · MI

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 880 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 43%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.31% · Republican 43.75%

D+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 43 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.315 − 43.748 = 9.567
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (9.567) = -1.567
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.567| = 1.567

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56811, race ID 148 (538 database).