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2018 Governor · OH

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 923 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 43%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.68% · Republican 50.39%

R+3.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 43 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.683 − 50.387 = -3.704
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (-3.704) = 8.704
  4. Absolute miss = |8.704| = 8.704

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56818, race ID 155 (538 database).