Skip to content

2018 House · OH-1

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 457 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 47%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.90% · Republican 51.32%

R+4.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 47 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.903 − 51.321 = -4.418
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-4.418) = 1.418
  4. Absolute miss = |1.418| = 1.418

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56820, race ID 465 (538 database).