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2014 Governor · AL

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2014-10-14 (21 days before the election) · 807 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 35.7% · Republican 57%

R+21.3

The certified result

Democrat 36.24% · Republican 63.56%

R+27.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35.7 − 57 = -21.30
  2. Actual margin = 36.240 − 63.557 = -27.317
  3. Signed miss = -21.30 − (-27.317) = 6.016
  4. Absolute miss = |6.016| = 6.016

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 62481, race ID 1220 (538 database).