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2019 Governor · LA

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2019-11-08 (8 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text-to-Web/Email

The poll said

Democrat 49.8% · Republican 47.6%

D+2.2

The certified result

Democrat 51.33% · Republican 48.67%

D+2.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.8 − 47.6 = 2.20
  2. Actual margin = 51.333 − 48.667 = 2.666
  3. Signed miss = 2.20 − (2.666) = -0.465
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.465| = 0.465

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 62599, race ID 6299 (538 database).