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2000 President · PA

Opinion Dynamics · fieldwork ended 2000-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 39%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.61% · Republican 46.44%

D+4.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 39 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.608 − 46.438 = 4.170
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (4.170) = -1.170
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.170| = 1.170

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6342, race ID 844 (538 database).