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2000 President · NH

Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication · fieldwork ended 2000-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 885 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 40%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.80% · Republican 48.07%

R+1.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 40 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.803 − 48.070 = -1.267
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-1.267) = 4.267
  4. Absolute miss = |4.267| = 4.267

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6404, race ID 836 (538 database).