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2006 House · OH-13

GQR · fieldwork ended 2006-10-17 (21 days before the election) · 506 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 33%

D+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.22% · Republican 38.78%

D+22.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 33 = 23.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.220 − 38.780 = 22.440
  3. Signed miss = 23.00 − (22.440) = 0.561
  4. Absolute miss = |0.561| = 0.561

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64065, race ID 3905 (538 database).