2008 House · TX-7
GQR · fieldwork ended 2008-10-22 (13 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 49%
R+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.36% · Republican 55.90%
R+13.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 49 = -5.00
- Actual margin = 42.361 − 55.901 = -13.540
- Signed miss = -5.00 − (-13.540) = 8.540
- Absolute miss = |8.540| = 8.540
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64071, race ID 4399 (538 database).