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2000 President · national

GQR · fieldwork ended 2000-10-18 (20 days before the election) · 832 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 45%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.15% · Republican 47.66%

D+0.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 45 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.149 − 47.657 = 0.492
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (0.492) = 0.508
  4. Absolute miss = |0.508| = 0.508

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6458, race ID 40 (538 database).