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2020 President · GA

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-16 (18 days before the election) · 759 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 45%

even

The certified result

Democrat 49.47% · Republican 49.24%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 45 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.473 − 49.237 = 0.236
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (0.236) = -0.236
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.236| = 0.236

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71454, race ID 6221 (538 database).