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2020 Senate · MN

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-14 (20 days before the election) · 1,021 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 44%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 43.50%

D+5.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 44 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.737 − 43.498 = 5.239
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (5.239) = -1.238
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.238| = 1.238

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71455, race ID 6281 (538 database).