2020 House · OH-10
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-17 (17 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 49%
R+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.64% · Republican 58.36%
R+16.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 49 = -4.00
- Actual margin = 41.643 − 58.357 = -16.714
- Signed miss = -4.00 − (-16.714) = 12.714
- Absolute miss = |12.714| = 12.714
The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71460, race ID 8142 (538 database).