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2020 President · AZ

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-18 (16 days before the election) · 232 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 45%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.37% · Republican 49.06%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 45 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.365 − 49.056 = 0.309
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (0.309) = 5.691
  4. Absolute miss = |5.691| = 5.691

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71519, race ID 6214 (538 database).