2020 Senate · GA
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-13 (21 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 43%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.95% · Republican 49.73%
R+1.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 43 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 47.949 − 49.728 = -1.779
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (-1.779) = 6.779
- Absolute miss = |6.779| = 6.779
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.8 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71566, race ID 6271 (538 database).