2020 President · KS
The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-19 (15 days before the election) · 755 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 48%
R+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.56% · Republican 56.21%
R+14.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 48 = -7.00
- Actual margin = 41.560 − 56.213 = -14.653
- Signed miss = -7.00 − (-14.653) = 7.653
- Absolute miss = |7.653| = 7.653
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71673, race ID 6227 (538 database).