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2020 Senate · NE

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2020-10-20 (14 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 17.5% · Republican 47.4%

R+29.9

The certified result

Democrat 24.43% · Republican 62.74%

R+38.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 17.5 − 47.4 = -29.90
  2. Actual margin = 24.429 − 62.742 = -38.313
  3. Signed miss = -29.90 − (-38.313) = 8.413
  4. Absolute miss = |8.413| = 8.413

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71675, race ID 6285 (538 database).