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2020 Senate · TN

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2020-10-21 (13 days before the election) · 610 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text-to-Web · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 35.6% · Republican 56.3%

R+20.7

The certified result

Democrat 35.16% · Republican 62.20%

R+27.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35.6 − 56.3 = -20.70
  2. Actual margin = 35.161 − 62.198 = -27.037
  3. Signed miss = -20.70 − (-27.037) = 6.337
  4. Absolute miss = |6.337| = 6.337

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71749, race ID 6294 (538 database).