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2020 House · FL-15

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-23 (11 days before the election) · 530 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 46%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.62% · Republican 55.38%

R+10.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 46 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.615 − 55.385 = -10.770
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-10.770) = 8.770
  4. Absolute miss = |8.770| = 8.770

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71956, race ID 7930 (538 database).