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2020 Senate · AL

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2020-10-22 (12 days before the election) · 645 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text-to-Web · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 41.1% · Republican 54.7%

R+13.6

The certified result

Democrat 39.74% · Republican 60.09%

R+20.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.1 − 54.7 = -13.60
  2. Actual margin = 39.737 − 60.095 = -20.358
  3. Signed miss = -13.60 − (-20.358) = 6.759
  4. Absolute miss = |6.759| = 6.759

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71959, race ID 6266 (538 database).