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2020 President · NV

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 809 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 43%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.06% · Republican 47.67%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 43 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.057 − 47.666 = 2.391
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (2.391) = 3.609
  4. Absolute miss = |3.609| = 3.609

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72049, race ID 6244 (538 database).