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2020 President · FL

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2020-10-28 (6 days before the election) · 786 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.6% · Republican 48.5%

D+0.1

The certified result

Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%

R+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.6 − 48.5 = 0.10
  2. Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
  3. Signed miss = 0.10 − (-3.359) = 3.458
  4. Absolute miss = |3.458| = 3.458

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72399, race ID 6220 (538 database).