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2020 President · PA

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 672 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.5% · Republican 49.6%

R+1.1

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 48.84%

D+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.5 − 49.6 = -1.10
  2. Actual margin = 50.008 − 48.844 = 1.164
  3. Signed miss = -1.10 − (1.164) = -2.265
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.265| = 2.265

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72475, race ID 6249 (538 database).