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2020 Senate · AZ

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-28 (6 days before the election) · 1,252 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 43%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.16% · Republican 48.81%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 43 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.157 − 48.808 = 2.349
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (2.349) = 4.651
  4. Absolute miss = |4.651| = 4.651

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72478, race ID 6268 (538 database).