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2020 President · TX

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 962 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.3% · Republican 50%

R+2.7

The certified result

Democrat 46.48% · Republican 52.06%

R+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.3 − 50 = -2.70
  2. Actual margin = 46.479 − 52.058 = -5.579
  3. Signed miss = -2.70 − (-5.579) = 2.879
  4. Absolute miss = |2.879| = 2.879

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72592, race ID 6254 (538 database).