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2020 President · GA

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 679 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46.1% · Republican 48.3%

R+2.2

The certified result

Democrat 49.47% · Republican 49.24%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.1 − 48.3 = -2.20
  2. Actual margin = 49.473 − 49.237 = 0.236
  3. Signed miss = -2.20 − (0.236) = -2.436
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.436| = 2.436

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72593, race ID 6221 (538 database).