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2020 President · MI

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2020-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 686 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.3% · Republican 45.9%

D+2.4

The certified result

Democrat 50.62% · Republican 47.84%

D+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.3 − 45.9 = 2.40
  2. Actual margin = 50.621 − 47.837 = 2.784
  3. Signed miss = 2.40 − (2.784) = -0.384
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.384| = 0.384

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72594, race ID 6233 (538 database).