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2020 House · OK-5

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-31 (3 days before the election) · 607 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 47.94% · Republican 52.06%

R+4.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.938 − 52.062 = -4.124
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-4.124) = 4.125
  4. Absolute miss = |4.125| = 4.125

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72758, race ID 8153 (538 database).