Skip to content

2020 House · NE-2

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-31 (3 days before the election) · 547 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 47%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.21% · Republican 50.77%

R+4.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.209 − 50.769 = -4.560
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-4.560) = 5.560
  4. Absolute miss = |5.560| = 5.560

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72759, race ID 8069 (538 database).