Skip to content

2020 President · ME

Change Research · fieldwork ended 2020-10-31 (3 days before the election) · 1,024 respondents · Text-to-Web/Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 40%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.09% · Republican 44.02%

D+9.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 40 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.092 − 44.021 = 9.071
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (9.071) = 2.929
  4. Absolute miss = |2.929| = 2.929

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72801, race ID 6232 (538 database).