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2004 President · NV

Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group · fieldwork ended 2004-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 504 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 47%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.88% · Republican 50.47%

R+2.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.878 − 50.470 = -2.592
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-2.592) = 1.592
  4. Absolute miss = |1.592| = 1.592

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 77188, race ID 788 (538 database).