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2022 Governor · OH

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2022-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 1,886 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 37.3% · Republican 54.9%

R+17.6

The certified result

Democrat 37.38% · Republican 62.41%

R+25.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37.3 − 54.9 = -17.60
  2. Actual margin = 37.377 − 62.406 = -25.029
  3. Signed miss = -17.60 − (-25.029) = 7.429
  4. Absolute miss = |7.429| = 7.429

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81245, race ID 8976 (538 database).