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2022 Senate · NC

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2022-10-21 (18 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 43.1% · Republican 46.9%

R+3.8

The certified result

Democrat 47.27% · Republican 50.50%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.1 − 46.9 = -3.80
  2. Actual margin = 47.273 − 50.499 = -3.226
  3. Signed miss = -3.80 − (-3.226) = -0.574
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.574| = 0.574

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81254, race ID 8940 (538 database).