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2022 Governor · MI

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2022-10-23 (16 days before the election) · 1,378 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web/Email

The poll said

Democrat 50.6% · Republican 44.5%

D+6.1

The certified result

Democrat 54.47% · Republican 43.94%

D+10.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.6 − 44.5 = 6.10
  2. Actual margin = 54.472 − 43.941 = 10.531
  3. Signed miss = 6.10 − (10.531) = -4.431
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.431| = 4.431

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81265, race ID 8969 (538 database).