2022 House · KS-3
The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-21 (18 days before the election) · 431 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 55% · Republican 41%
D+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 54.94% · Republican 42.76%
D+12.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 55 − 41 = 14.00
- Actual margin = 54.939 − 42.762 = 12.177
- Signed miss = 14.00 − (12.177) = 1.823
- Absolute miss = |1.823| = 1.823
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81319, race ID 9156 (538 database).