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2022 House · PA-8

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-19 (20 days before the election) · 415 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 44%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.23% · Republican 48.77%

D+2.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 44 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.225 − 48.775 = 2.450
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (2.450) = 3.551
  4. Absolute miss = |3.551| = 3.551

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81322, race ID 9328 (538 database).