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2022 Senate · AZ

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-25 (14 days before the election) · 604 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 45%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.40% · Republican 46.51%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 45 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.395 − 46.507 = 4.888
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (4.888) = 1.113
  4. Absolute miss = |1.113| = 1.113

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81354, race ID 8919 (538 database).