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2022 Senate · OH

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,510 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 43.7% · Republican 48.2%

R+4.5

The certified result

Democrat 46.92% · Republican 53.03%

R+6.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.7 − 48.2 = -4.50
  2. Actual margin = 46.923 − 53.035 = -6.112
  3. Signed miss = -4.50 − (-6.112) = 1.612
  4. Absolute miss = |1.612| = 1.612

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81364, race ID 8942 (538 database).