Skip to content

2022 Governor · OH

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2022-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 1,510 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 35.5% · Republican 56%

R+20.5

The certified result

Democrat 37.38% · Republican 62.41%

R+25.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35.5 − 56 = -20.50
  2. Actual margin = 37.377 − 62.406 = -25.029
  3. Signed miss = -20.50 − (-25.029) = 4.529
  4. Absolute miss = |4.529| = 4.529

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81364, race ID 8976 (538 database).