Skip to content

2022 Senate · IA

Cygnal · fieldwork ended 2022-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 600 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 42.7% · Republican 53.9%

R+11.2

The certified result

Democrat 43.84% · Republican 56.02%

R+12.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.7 − 53.9 = -11.20
  2. Actual margin = 43.836 − 56.015 = -12.179
  3. Signed miss = -11.20 − (-12.179) = 0.979
  4. Absolute miss = |0.979| = 0.979

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81367, race ID 8930 (538 database).